Predictive modeling in influencer marketing is a process that involves analyzing various factors such as spending habits, influencer relationships, and the overall share of influence in the market that a brand's competitor may have. This analysis is conducted on a monthly or quarterly basis to devise a strategy for a client brand based on the competitive landscape. Agencies like Obviously use predictive modeling to help clients identify opportunities or 'white space' where they can differentiate themselves and make strategic decisions for their influencer marketing campaigns.

Competitive analysis is becoming increasingly important in influencer marketing because as the sector matures and ad budgets increase, marketers need to be more strategic about their investments. By understanding what competitors are doing, brands can identify points of differentiation and decide how to position their content—whether it's to be funnier, more educational, or to tell better stories. Agencies like Billion Dollar Boy, Find Your Influence, and Sway Group have reported a rise in client interest in competitive analysis to inform their influencer marketing strategies. This analysis helps brands understand what has performed well for others, informs their spending decisions, and supports requests for increased budgets from their leadership teams.

The metrics and tracking in influencer marketing are evolving due to changes in sector trends and the improvement of measurement tools. Agencies like Billion Dollar Boy use platforms such as Companion to track campaigns and competitor trends. The rise of social commerce has also made influencer marketing more accountable, and its reporting capabilities have improved to meet the demand for more precise and actionable data. Brands and agencies are now looking at a variety of KPIs and managing competitive analysis in different ways, depending on the agency, brand, and category. This includes insights from alternative verticals and comparisons between different divisions within a brand.

Competitive data in influencer marketing can significantly influence budget decisions by providing insights that allow brands to strategize more effectively. When brands understand their competitors' successes and failures, they can make informed decisions on where to allocate their marketing dollars. This data is valuable to agencies as it enables them to guide clients in choosing the right influencers and content strategies. As a result, clients can justify the need for increased budgets to their leadership teams, driven by the fear of falling behind in the competitive influencer marketing space.

Brands should maintain a balance in relying on competitive analysis in influencer marketing because while performance measurement is crucial, an overemphasis on short-term data can cloud a brand's long-term vision. According to Piet Southey of Billion Dollar Boy, it's important for clients to be aware of competitive data but not become over-reliant on it. Focusing too much on short-term performance may hinder a brand's ability to develop and maintain a strong, forward-looking strategy that aligns with its long-term goals and brand identity.