Publishers are concerned about Google's new "AI Overview" feature and its potential negative impact on referral traffic. The feature, which uses AI to generate search results, could significantly reduce visits to publishers' websites, with Raptive estimating a potential 25% drop in traffic and a $2 billion annual loss in ad revenue. However, Raptive's Marc McCollum believes the actual impact could be even worse.
Key points:
- Lack of Transparency: Publishers are frustrated by Google's lack of transparency regarding the data and impact of AI Overviews. McCollum emphasizes the need for detailed data from Google to understand the changes better.
- Google's AI Overview: CEO Sundar Pichai claims the Gemini model has improved search experiences, leading to increased usage and user satisfaction. However, concrete data on its impact is still missing.
- Referral Traffic: Google remains a major traffic source for publishers, with significant percentages of organic traffic coming from Google for top publishers like The New York Times, Forbes, and USA Today.
- ChatGPT's Impact: ChatGPT generates far less referral traffic compared to Google, with most traffic directed to OpenAI's own website.
- Tools for Publishers: Semrush has developed tools like Position Tracking and Sensor to help publishers monitor their visibility in AI Overview and the prevalence of AI Overviews in search results.
- Current Impact: AI Overviews currently appear in less than 0.5% of Google search results, with even lower percentages for news-related searches.
- Potential Positive Impact: Some believe AI Overviews could lead to increased traffic due to improved user experiences and more searches being made.
- Publisher Lawsuits and Partnerships: Publishers are filing lawsuits against tech companies for copyright infringement while also partnering with them to train AI models on higher-quality content. Recent deals include News Corp's $250 million agreement with OpenAI and partnerships with Reddit and other publishers.
- Regulatory Concerns: European publishers are cautious about the impact of AI Overview, especially with new regulations like the DMCC bill in the UK. Lifestyle publishers are advised to reduce reliance on Google by building direct reader relationships.
- Ad Inventory and Value: As users increasingly rely on Google for information, there could be fewer ads overall, but the value of Google ads might increase.
- SEO and Search Quality: Google's recent crackdown on "site reputation abuse" and SEO spam has already led to significant traffic losses for some publishers.
Publishers are seeking more guidance from Google to navigate these changes and understand the new dynamics in search and referral traffic.
